(Vancouver Courier, Aug. 11)
Pop quiz: How many people watched the annual gay Pride Parade two Sundays ago in the West End? Times up.
If you follow local mainstream media, you probably said between 600,000 and 700,000 people. (CTV reported 700,000. So did News 1130. Our city's two big dailies--the Province and the Sun--reported 600,000 as did the Courier.)
Big numbers, apparently postulated by the Pride Society, the parade organizers and political tour de force in the city's West End. According to Pride president Ken Coolen, this year 650,000 people watched the parade and 125,000 attended the Pride festival. The Pride website claims "over 700,000 people" attended last year's event.
Big numbers mean big business. Year round, Coolen and company quote impressive attendance figures while flogging ad space on parade brochures and banners, courting major sponsors such as Pepsi, Bud Light and Telus. This year TD Bank assumed title-sponsor status for an undisclosed dollar amount. And what about those attendance figures? They seem a bit high. Seeking an impartial outside source, I contacted the Vancouver Police Department. Surely the cops know how many people lined the Pride Parade route. "No, we leave the crowd estimates to the organizers, as that's something they are very proud of," said Const. Lindsey Houghton, spokesman for the department. "That being said, I've heard it reported that the estimates were around 600,000."
Perhaps we require an outside, outside source.
Mark Robinson teaches mathematics at Regent Christian Academy, a K-12 private school in Surrey. Using news photos and television footage, Robinson analyzed the crowds at two major summer events--the Pride Parade and the Celebration of Light. According to Robinson, estimates for the fireworks crowd (250,000-300,000 people) seem plausible. The five-kilometre waterfront viewing area, which includes English Bay and Kits Point, boasts sections up to 100 metres wide. "Sure, if it's a good day and the weather's cooperative and people pack in there. Plus the boats come in as well."
However, according to Robinson, the much-bandied Pride Parade numbers are literally impossible.
This year's parade route began at Robson and Bute, horseshoed around Denman, and finished at Pacific and Bute. According to Google maps, the route totals 2.7 kilometres. "But I gave it three kilometres, which is 3,000 metres," said Robinson. "Of course you have crowds on both sides of the street so you double it. That's 6,000 metres of available space for spectators."
Now follow along closely.
Using a very generous two-and-half person per metre ratio, Robinson multiplied 2.5 (people) by 6,000 (metres). Answer: 15,000 spectators. Citing news footage, Robinson concluded that some sections of the parade route crowd were 10 deep with people while other sections of the route were less populated. However, to be generous, he assumed that the entire parade route was 10 deep. Ten multiplied by 15,000 equals 150,000 spectators. Shoulder to shoulder. No spacing. From Robson to Pacific Street.
"And that's being very generous, there was probably less than that," said Robinson. "It's probably closer to 90,000 that were actually there."
Ninety thousand. What about the 700,000 figure parroted by the media? What would that crowd look like?
"You'd be talking about crowds roughly 47 deep on both sides, crowds that are physically impossible to be in that space because you're dealing with curb to storefront."
By the way, a crowd of 700,000 equals 37 sold out Canuck games or 12 packed BC Places. We experienced crowds like that last February. We called it the Olympics.
But don't blame the Pride Society—facts aren't their responsibility. They care more about bamboozling corporate sponsors and inflating the appeal of their parade’s shallow participants. Blame Vancouver's mainstream media, which once again demonstrates an appalling lack of curiosity and a political correctness bordering on corruption.
In conclusion, more math: 700,000 equals nearly one third of Metro Vancouver's 2.1 million people. That's a lot of people in the West End for a two hour parade.
But hey, who's counting?
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